As the world moves deeper into the 2020s, many economists and strategists believe a historic shift in global economic leadership may be underway. Although the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted economies across the globe, it arguably accelerated existing trends rather than reversing them.
From U.S.-Centric to China-Centric Globalization
Even before the pandemic, the global economic order was experiencing a transition from a U.S.-centered model to one that China increasingly shaped. COVID-19 brought this shift into sharper focus, as China maintained its trade momentum while many nations turned inward to manage domestic crises.
A major factor in this shift is changing public opinion in the United States. In recent years, skepticism toward globalization has grown. Many Americans associate free trade with job losses, outsourcing, and economic inequality. As a result, political and popular support for open markets has weakened—prompting a shift toward more protectionist policies.
Why China Continues to Embrace Global Trade
In contrast, China maintains a strong commitment to globalization. Historical experience informs this stance. Between 1842 and 1949, a period known in China as the “Century of Humiliation,” the country endured foreign interference, war, and economic decline. During that era, China experienced significant isolation from global technological and industrial advancement.
In the decades since China’s rapid rise has been deeply tied to its integration into the global economy. Policies that promoted open trade, foreign investment, and export-driven growth lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. As a result, both Chinese policymakers and citizens view globalization as critical to continued prosperity and national renewal.
America at a Strategic Crossroads
In response to China’s rise and shifting global dynamics, the United States faces a strategic dilemma. Two primary policy paths have emerged:
1. Geopolitical Competition
This approach involves countering China’s rise through economic containment, strategic alliances, and efforts to protect U.S. technological leadership. The goal is to preserve American global dominance and limit Beijing’s influence on key global systems.
2. Strategic Cooperation
Alternatively, the U.S. could pursue selective engagement and cooperation with China in areas such as climate change, global health, and trade stability. This model emphasizes shared responsibility and long-term global resilience.
Renowned Singaporean scholar and former diplomat Kishore Mahbubani has argued that cooperation offers a more sustainable path forward. In his view, global peace and prosperity are better achieved through collaboration than confrontation—especially in an era of economic interdependence.
Conclusion: A Defining Decade Ahead
The 2020s may prove to be a defining period for the global economy. While China continues to expand its global influence, the United States must determine how it will adapt—whether through rivalry or a renewed partnership.
The question is not only whether China will replace the U.S. as the world’s economic leader, but also how both powers choose to navigate their relationship—with consequences that will shape the future of global trade, diplomacy, and development.
