In the late 1990s, a bold and controversial vision for Russia’s geopolitical future emerged through the work of Aleksandr Dugin, a political theorist and strategist. His 1997 book, The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia, offered an ambitious blueprint for Russia’s return to great power status. The book has gained notable influence within Russian military and political circles and continues to shape the country’s strategic outlook.
A Eurasian Alternative to Western Dominance
Dugin’s doctrine calls for Russia to lead a multipolar world order by asserting its influence over Eurasia and resisting Western—especially U.S. and NATO—dominance. His key proposals include:
- Rejecting Atlanticism and liberal democratic values while promoting a geopolitical order rooted in sovereign regional powers.
- Rebuilding influence in former Soviet territories to establish a Eurasian sphere of control.
- Leveraging energy resources—especially oil and natural gas—as instruments of geopolitical influence over energy-dependent nations.
Europe: Divide and Rebalance the Power Structure
Europe plays a central role in Dugin’s vision. He advocates for realigning European power away from American influence:
- Germany should emerge as a dominant power in Central and Eastern Europe, distancing itself from U.S. policies.
- Many view France as a potential strategic ally to help counterbalance Anglo-American ideologies.
- The United Kingdom should establish a geopolitical separation from continental Europe to weaken U.S. leverage within the EU and diminish Western unity.
Restoring Influence Over Post-Soviet States
The strategy’s main goal is to restore Russian supremacy in the post-Soviet sphere. Dugin suggests reclaiming influence over countries such as:
- Ukraine
- Romania
- Serbia and Bosnia
- Macedonia
- Greece
This expansionist outlook focuses on historical, cultural, and political reintegration with the broader Slavic and Orthodox world.
Managing China as a Strategic Challenge
Despite their current economic cooperation, Dugin cautions about China’s long-term goals. To counterbalance Beijing, the doctrine proposes:
- Supporting separatist movements in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Manchuria
- Using Mongolia and other nearby buffer states as a geopolitical belt
- Encouraging China to turn its focus toward Southeast Asia—nations like Cambodia, Indonesia, and the Philippines—to distract it from Central Asia and the Russian sphere
A Tactical Relationship with Japan
Dugin sees a practical alliance with Japan in East Asia. He suggests that Russia could negotiate on issues like the Kuril Islands to encourage Tokyo to shift away from the U.S. alliance. The aim would be to balance against China while ensuring Japan remains less powerful than Russia in the regional hierarchy.
Conclusion: Strategic Influence Over Direct Confrontation
Aleksandr Dugin’s geopolitical roadmap offers a detailed, if controversial, vision of how Russia could reassert itself as a global power. It emphasizes regional alliances, energy leverage, and geopolitical maneuvering over confrontation. While many of Dugin’s proposals face criticism for being provocative or unrealistic, they provide insight into the strategic thinking behind some of Russia’s foreign policy behavior.
As global power dynamics continue to evolve, understanding these underlying doctrines helps explain the broader ambitions and long-term strategies shaping Russia’s role in the international system.
